Unpicking baby name trends from the last 20 years

Baby names are, oddly, one of the most permanent records of pop culture. A small window of time and popularity for a film, actor, or pop star, ends up attached to a human being that could live for 100 years.

Inspired by recent Reddit posts tracking the declining popularity of the name Karen (and its recently uncovered male counterpart, Terry), I wanted to take a deeper look at changes by year, to figure out what names fell in and out of fashion.

I took the data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics, which keeps an impressive record of baby name rankings and counts from 1997–2016. I then looked at which boys’ and girls’ names had the biggest rises and falls from the previous year. Note that this only applies to names in the top 250 (including those which “enter” and “exit” that group). This is to balance a decent sample size with enough room to demonstrate interesting trends. Without further ado, here are the biggest movers and shakers for boys’ names:

Let’s start from the bottom up. I can only assume the collapse of Brad and Andre is due to the waning in popularity of Brad Pitt and Andre Agassi as cultural icons. The two-year emergence of Kian is something I can’t think of a reason for.

Come 2001, and Gladiator means we see Maximus rampage up the charts. We lose Ronan though, as Ronan Keating takes his leave from Boyzone (and never quite tops “Life Is A Rollercoaster”, for my money). The sudden rise and fall of Korben is something I find inexplicable — I can’t think of a single person, famous or otherwise, who has that name.

2004 Hamzah drops, which I assume was down to the arrest of Abu Hamza, the radical cleric. Either side of that downfall both McKenzie and Kenzie come to the fore, something I think is down to reasons more subtle than the popularity of either The Office or Blazin’ Squad. On the other hand, the Preston bump may have something to do with the singer of that name appearing on Celebrity Big Brother (though interestingly, Preston is actually the singer’s surname).

In the same year Craig makes a sudden drop, and never rejoins the 250 — a slow-burn legacy of Craig David’s diminished popularity, I feel. I assume something similar happens with Shayne the year afterwards, as everyone moves on from Shayne Ward, first winner of The X Factor. Simon Cowell may inspire a later drop in 2009 off the back of his own name. In 2011 too, Lloyd dropped significantly, the year after Cher Lloyd appeared on the show.

2008 is the year we start to see the influence of post-2004 immigration from Eastern Europe, as Filip becomes the fastest-growing name, with Mateusz in second place.

Grayson Perry is the likely reason the given name emerges in 2013 (and it has stuck around ever since), though the reason behind Parker’s emergence a year later is harder to discern — it’s a name that had no records from 1996–2005.

Beyond these names, that you can parallel with celebrity trajectories, there are some patterns harder to explain. Why, for example, do “K” names roar into fashion at the beginning of the period, only to drop off at the end? Why do “en” or “on” names, like Kyran, Jaden, or Caden, briefly twinkle in the mid-00s before being replaced by “er” names at the end? I can only assume there’s some phonetic trends at work here as well. It may be cultural too; replacing Irish-sounding names with American ones.

All that said, girls’ names show far more sensitivity to pop culture trends than boys’ names do. Of the biggest risers, almost all of those from the first half of the decade would seem to be inspired by a singer or actress of some kind. Britney Spears (with a massive rise of 1,834 places), Macy Gray, Mya, Alesha Dixon, Rihanna, Leona Lewis, Miley Cyrus, and then Amelie and Sienna Miller from the world of film. It works the other way too, with Britney, Miley, and Alesha soon dropping out of the top 250, along with Shakira, Elsa (from Frozen) and Shania (Twain).

Neither Rhianna or Brittany in 2000 are typos. I have a private theory; these are versions of those names that would usually be distributed in a different demographic to the Rihannas and Britneys, and the sudden drop-off is potential parents of children with those names noping their way out of any associations with pop stars.

The reasons why pop stars influence trending names less and less over time are perhaps even more intriguing, and I think there’s a few possible explanations. One is the declining relevance of the music industry compared to its early noughties peak, as media became more fractured in the digital age. Alongside that is the emergence of the internet as a source of baby name inspiration, which may favor aesthetics over celebrity associations. Yet another possible factor is the average age of first-time mothers increasing over that time, which may reduce the incidences of celebrity-inspired naming.

As we did with the boys, in recent years I think we see phonetic trends at work, as “ee” names (Maizie, Marnie, and Paisley) come up while “ah” names (Sasha, Ciara) fall down.

Other things I can’t explain: why Court(e)ney suffers a dramatic decline across both sexes in the late 90s, and why all forms of Abigail (including Abby, Abbey, and Gail) fall in popularity. The only possible reason I can think of is a couple of pin-ups with that name (Titmuss and Clancy) becoming well-known around that time, sometimes with unfortunate associations.

Other tidbits

While I limited the visuals to movement in the top 250, there were some interesting tidbits from further down the list worth mentioning:

• While double-barrelled names seem to be falling in popularity for boys, they’re rising for girls, particularly if “Rose” is the second barrel.
• Neo crash-landed into the top 1,000 boys’ names in 2000 and has stayed ever since. We have similarly dramatic entrances from nowhere for Thierry in 2003, Kanye in 2004, and Bowie in 2016.
• As well as dropping out of the picture for girls’, Paris is virtually wiped out as a boy’s name after 2007.
• From a once-prominent spot, there were no Brads born in 2016.
• There are a lot of people in the UK that don’t know how to spell Rihanna.

Last of all — I also looked at which names had the lowest deviation in rankings over this 20 year window. So if you want a name likely to stick around, I’d advise Jack for the boys and Emily for the girls.